Monday, June 23, 2008

Dear Africa: Oust Mugabe.

Recent news has reported that Zimbabwe's leader of the opposition MDC intended to end his run for the Zimbabwean Presidency. Mr. Tsvangirai made his decision in the wake of despicable acts of violence against many of his supporters. In fairness, Tsvangirai did not stand much of a chance of winning this run-off election--though he handily won the first round--because of the intimidatory tactics of the ruling Zanu-PF. MDC supporters, and even just sympathizers, have been murdered and brutalized by military and militia forces. This includes supposed 'war veterans,' many of whom are too young to have fought in Zimbabwe's struggle against 'white' rule.

As Tsvangirai succintly puts it himself, this is a "violent, illegitimate sham of an election process." There will not be legitimacy when Mugabe wins; and Mugabe is practically assured victory. If Tsvangirai no longer runs, then there is no longer the need for a poll, and Mugabe will be declared the winner.

This sham masquerading as an election is a shame for all of Africa, particularly sub-Saharan Africa. Mugabe has run Zimbabwe into the ground, turning a robustly developing country into a basket case with the world's highest inflation. Even more unfortunately, this reflects badly on all of Africa, and is used as ammunition by 'white' racists, who point out--accurately--that under 'white' ruled Rhodesia, even 'black' Rhodesians had a much higher standard of living than under 'black' ruled Zimbabwe. Mugabe has given these racists yet another stone to lob at 'blacks,' and they (the 'white' racists) are more than willing to oblige.

The strongest hope for Mugabe's ouster comes neither from within Zimbabwe nor from the developed world. The former cannot fight and win against the Zimbabwean military, which still seems to support Mugabe (unsurprising as many of Mugabe's soldiers are as corrupt as he is). The latter is unwilling to use more than words and economic sanctions at this point. The hope is that the governments of Zimbabwe's neighbors will take action, realizing how Mugabe's inept rule has adversely affected investment in their countries, either directly--such as making foreign investors view the region as undesirable--or indirectly--such as making those neighbors have to deal with huge influxes of Zimbabwean refugees although many of them already have difficulty providing food and jobs for their own people.

Countries such as Zambia have taken the strong stand in opposition to Mugabe. Others, notably the regional leader South Africa, have basically just stood by as Mugabe cheats his way into a new term. A few support Mugabe, mainly countries ruled by men who--similar to Mugabe--fought for their countries' independence from 'white' rule, either abroad or indigenous.

And, at first glance paradoxically, it is this last group that could be key to knocking Mugabe from the Presidency. A major factor in his refusal to cede his position to Tsvangirai is that he--along with his top cronies--believes that he will face justice should he lose power.

And he should face justice.

However, for the sake of pragmatism, Mugabe and his posse should be permitted to keep at least a portion of the assets they stole from the Zimbabwean people, and should be given a promise that the new government will not seek to prosecute them. They will further be granted the right to expatriate themselves to another country. Angola would be ideal, as the government there is largely supportive of Mugabe, and the culture and climate are roughly similar to that of Zimbabwe, as are the people.

If the Mugabe government is granted these promises, then they just might end their incompetent and corrupt reign. And then a rebirth, a renaissance, of Zimbabwe--named after that great sub-Saharan African kingdom of old--can begin anew.

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Found this article interesting? Check out:
History: The Roadmap to the Future.
History: The Roadmap to the Future--Asia.
History: The Roadmap to the Future--Europe.
History: The Roadmap to the Future--Latin America.

Or:

The Science Fiction Channel + Technorium.
The Vegetarian Diaries.

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Found this article interesting? Check out:
History: The Roadmap to the Future.
History: The Roadmap to the Future--Africa.
History: The Roadmap to the Future--Asia.
History: The Roadmap to the Future--Europe.
History: The Roadmap to the Future--Latin America.

Or:
The Science Fiction Channel + Technorium.
The Vegetarian Diaries + Biologeel.

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Safaricom: A Floating Hope for Africa.

Yesterday, one of east Africa's most successful companies, telecommunications firm Safaricom, was floated on Kenya's Nairobi Stock Exchange, the stock market's largest flotation to date.

Safaricom, previously a joint venture of the Kenyan government and the British company Vodafone, had a profit of some $370 million in 2007, and is the largest cellphone service provider in Kenya. Across Africa, the cellphone industry and telecommunications are booming, in part due to lack of phone lines and the difficulty of putting in infrastructure in the continent because of war and terrain. Safaricom's willingness to sell service by the second was also a wise decision in impoverished Africa.

At the IPO, an initial twenty-five percent stake in the company was on offer, distributed among ten billion shares for sale. After a day's trading, shares grew by 60% over their original price, and Safaricom shares now comprise a huge 40% of the Kenyan stock market.

This was a big story for Kenya, and Africa. The Kenyan President was at the IPO to signal the start of trading. Already, the government has made some $818 million from the sale. As shares will be cheaper for Kenyans to buy than for foreigners, many poor Kenyans have become first-time shareholders, and now have a stake in Safaricom's, and Kenya's, economic success. And the IPO has put Kenya in the news for more respectable reasons than violence and corruption. Kenya--and Africa--could use some PR for a change.

Africans themselves seem hopeful about the IPO and what the offering entails for Kenya and Africa.

Finally, foreign interest--and foreign direct investment--in Africa is beginning grow more, and in fields other than non-renewable commodities such as metals and gems and other minerals. Safaricom is in the services sector, and relies on human capital, which Africa has in abundance. Investors are starting to see Africa as a more attractive, and less risky, place in which to invest their money. Across Africa, GDP is growing by around 6% per annum, although much of this is still due to high commodities prices, such as for Nigerian oil.

Yet still, Safaricom's impressive first day on the stock market could be one of the first signs that Africa's development is about to kick off and into high gear.

--------
Found this article interesting? Check out:
The Roadmap to the Future.
The Roadmap to the Future--Asia.
The Roadmap to the Future--Europe.
The Roadmap to the Future--Latin America.

Or:

The Science Fiction Channel + Technorium.
The Vegetarian Diaries.

Tag this post with:
Delicious Logo Delicious Digg Logo Digg Technorati Logo Technorati reddit Logo reddit Facebook Logo Facebook Stumble Upon Toolbar StumbleUpon Furl Logo Furl Digg Logo blinklist

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Found this article interesting? Check out:
History: The Roadmap to the Future.
History: The Roadmap to the Future--Africa.
History: The Roadmap to the Future--Asia.
History: The Roadmap to the Future--Europe.
History: The Roadmap to the Future--Latin America.

Or:
The Science Fiction Channel + Technorium.
The Vegetarian Diaries + Biologeel.